Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland Preview
Bulgaria will look to capitalise on their impressive finish in Group C3, where a two-match unbeaten run saw them secure second place behind Northern Ireland.
They now host their rivals to the south, the Republic of Ireland, for the chance of being promoted to Group B. It’s a two-legged playoff, with the first at the Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv on Thursday. The return is at Dublin’s Aviva Stadium on Sunday.
The Irish struggled in Group B2, losing four of six matches and finishing a distant third behind England and Greece. They go into this game off the back of a 5-0 mauling against the English at Wembley back in November.
Ireland can take confidence from their recent head-to-head record against Bulgaria though. They are on a seven-match unbeaten streak against them.
However, their recent away record is not strong. As well as being hammered by England, the Irish have lost 2-0 in Greece and 3-0 in Portugal within the last year. However, Bulgaria do not have the same pedigree as any of these sides. Meanwhile, Ireland did secure a 2-1 win in Finland in their Nations League campaign.
Predictions for Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland
Bulgaria Win
Bulgaria are unbeaten at home in the Nations League this time around. They have won one and drawn two of their three home games. They are also unbeaten at home since a 2-0 reverse to Lithuania in October 2023.
Draw
Bulgaria drew two of their three home games in the Nations League – against Luxembourg and Belarus – while five of the last six fixtures between Bulgaria and Ireland have ended in a draw. The Irish would certainly settle for this ahead of Sunday’s second leg.
Ireland Win
With Ireland’s challenging recent away fixtures and Bulgaria’s inconsistent form, a narrow Irish victory is certainly possible. Their strong head-to-head record against Bulgaria also counts in their favour.
How Many Goals Can Be Expected?
Only one of the last eight games between Bulgaria and Ireland has had more than 2.5 goals. Four of these eight games have ended in 1-1 draws.
With Bulgaria having only scored two goals in their three Nations League games at home and Ireland netting just two in their three games on the road, expect a low scoring affair.
Will Both Teams Score?
Bulgaria failed to score in three of their Nations League matches including against minnows Luxembourg at home. Meanwhile, Ireland have only scored once in their last three Nations League games overall.
Both sides only scored three times in their six Nations League group games so defences are likely to prevail in Plovdiv.
Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland – Betting Tips
Ireland to Win @ 2.45 Odds
Considering Ireland’s recent tough away fixtures and their strong record against Bulgaria, backing an Irish win offers good value.
Correct Score: Ireland 1-0 @ 6.00 Odds
A low-scoring affair seems likely and as I’m backing an Ireland win, 1-0 looks the best value here.
Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland – Head-to-Head and Key Stats
- Bulgaria have played Ireland on 12 occasions, with six of these games ending in draws. There have been three wins apiece.
- Five of the last six games between the two sides have ended in a draw. Four of these were with a 1-1 scoreline.
- Both Bulgaria and the Republic of Ireland only scored three goals in their six Nations League group games.
My Verdict
Given Ireland’s challenging recent away tests and Bulgaria’s inconsistent form, this match presents a strong opportunity for the Republic of Ireland to secure a win. Their robust head-to-head record against Bulgaria, combined with a trend for low-scoring games, leads us to predict a narrow 1-0 victory for Ireland.
With both sides likely to adopt a cautious approach, every tactical decision and moment of individual brilliance will be crucial.
Stay tuned for live updates and in-depth analysis as both teams battle for their Nations League destinies!
