Germany host Italy at Signal Iduna Park in the second leg of their Nations League quarter-final on Sunday carrying a 2-1 advantage.
Julian Nagelsmann’s men came from behind on Thursday night in the San Siro, with the manager making two inspired substitutions.
Sandro Tonali put the home side in front inside 10 minutes, but captain Joshua Kimmich inspired Die Mannschaft to victory.
His first assist allowed substitute striker Tim Kleindienst to head the equaliser four minutes into the second half.
Leon Goretzka then marked his return to the international fray by heading the winner 14 minutes from time.
It means that if Germany avoid defeat, they will qualify for the Nations League finals for the first time. Here, they will face either Denmark or Portugal in the last four.
Germany vs Italy Preview
Germany have only lost once in their last 16 games, winning 11. They are also unbeaten in eight Nations League matches and will be confident of making it nine at Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park.
Tim Kleindienst could replace Jonathan Burkardt in the starting line-up following his successful substitute appearance at the San Siro. Both have 15 Bundesliga goals to their name, but Kleindienst has scored three goals in three international matches.
Leon Goretzka should start in midfield following an impressive performance too.
Due to the high number of absences including Kai Havertz, Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Florian Wirtz, Germany aren’t likely to play much of a changed side.
Italy are particularly weak on set-pieces and this proved to be their downfall again against Germany. However, they did apply significant pressure at the San Siro, forcing German keeper Oliver Baumann into making a number of saves.
It wasn’t enough to avoid back-to-back defeats for the first time in over a decade though. They had gone into this fixture following a 3-1 loss to France, which had seen Italy surrender their lead at the top of Group A2.
Top scorer in Serie A this season, Mateo Retegui, is out as is left wing-back Federico Dimarco. Riccardo Calafiori may also be out injured after he was seen limping off the pitch at the end of Thursday’s game. Alessandro Buongiorno could replace him.
Andrea Cambiaso and Mattia Zaccagni should both be available for the clash.
Predictions for Germany vs Italy
Germany Win
Germany have won four of their last six games against Italy, including a 5-2 mauling when they last hosted the Azzurri. Their home form is currently strong too, giving them the edge.
Draw
Given the competitive nature of these two giants, a stalemate remains a possibility. However, Germany’s recent form and superior goal-scoring record (18 vs 13 in the group stage) suggest that a draw is less likely than a win for the hosts.
Italy Win
While Italy have shown flashes of brilliance and resilience on the road, their defensive lapses on set-pieces remain a core weakness. If they can tighten up though, they definitely possess the firepower to trouble the Germans.
Betting Tips
- Germany to Win (Tip 1): We recommend backing Germany to win at attractive odds, given their strong home form and recent head-to-head superiority.
- Germany -1 Handicap: For enhanced value, consider a handicap bet on Germany at -1. This reflects their dominant performance, including their recent 5-2 triumph over Italy.
- Both Teams to Score – Yes: With both sides known for their attacking prowess, a bet on both teams to score is an excellent option.
How Many Goals Can Be Expected?
Germany’s attacking output has been impressive, averaging more than three goals per match in their recent games, while Italy have shown they can be prolific when firing on all cylinders. Expect a high-scoring encounter likely to exceed 2.5 goals, as both teams possess the firepower to dominate offensively.
Will Both Teams Score?
Historically, head-to-head encounters between these two powerhouses have rarely ended with a clean sheet – in the last nine meetings, both teams have found the net on eight occasions. Considering Germany’s strong home form and Italy’s tendency to open up their defence under pressure, it is highly likely that both teams will score.
Germany vs Italy – Head-to-Head and Key Stats
- Italy and Germany have played each other 38 times. The Italians have won 15 games, Germany have won 11, with 12 draws.
- In the last six head-to-head meetings between Italy and Germany, Germany have won four and two have ended in draws. There were goals in five of these six games.
- Germany’s three recent Nations League home fixtures have all been won to nil, with Germany scoring 13 goals in the process.
- Germany have won 11 and drawn four of their last 16 games.
- Italy have kept only one clean sheet in their last 11 matches, underscoring their ongoing defensive issues.
- Italy won all three of their away fixtures in the Nations League group stage.
