Ireland are in the driving seat in their League B/C playoff against Bulgaria in the Nations League. They head to the Aviva Stadium with a 2-1 lead from the first leg.
The Irish came from behind in Plovdiv, with Marin Petkov scoring a sixth minute goal for the Bulgarians.
Finn Azaz drew the Irish level with a close-range shot while a Matt Doherty header gave Ireland the lead just before half-time.
The second half was patchy, but the Irish will be confident of finishing the job on home turf.
The result saw Ireland stretch their unbeaten run against Bulgaria to eight games. They know that a draw will be enough on Sunday evening for them to retain their status in League B.
Ireland vs Bulgaria Preview
Ireland’s Nations League campaign has been poor, having lost four out of six in Group B2. This included a 5-0 mauling at the hands of England, but their last home game was a 1-0 victory over Finland.
The Irish have struggled to find consistency, with their difficulty in scoring being a major concern. They found the net on just three occasions in the Nations League group stage.
Manager Heimir Hallgrimsson may be loathed to make too many changes to the side that won in Plovdiv on Thursday night. Troy Parrott will battle with Evan Ferguson for a place in attack, with Ferguson coming on as a substitute on Thursday.
Robbie Brady is likely to be retained at left-back despite his bloody nose in Bulgaria, while Matt Doherty should win his 50th cap for the senior side.
Bulgaria recently concluded their campaign in Group C3 with a solid run. Their aggressive, attack-minded approach earned them two wins, three draws, and only one defeat in their six matches. Their final group stage result, a 1-1 home draw against Belarus, showcased both their resilience and their struggle to secure decisive victories. Under the guidance of manager Ilian Dimov Iliev, Bulgaria have adopted a pragmatic strategy, prioritising defensive stability while looking to capitalise on counter-attacking opportunities.
Bulgaria’s last away game was a 1-0 victory against Luxembourg but the Irish are of a far greater pedigree. They were hammered 5-0 in Northern Ireland in the Nations League too, so their neighbours to the south will be feeling confident. Adding to this is that Bulgaria have never won a match in the Republic of Ireland.
Plamen Iliev should be retained in goal for the Bulgarians after replacing Dimitar Mitov in the second half. No other changes are expected for the Eastern European side.
Ireland and Bulgaria played out a goalless draw back in November 2020, underlining the tight, cagey nature of their meetings. Prior to Thursday night’s game, Ireland had won one and drawn four of their last five encounters with Bulgaria.
Predictions for Ireland vs Bulgaria
Ireland Win
The Irish will be confident after securing a rare away win and will be determined to finish the job on home soil. With Troy Parrott and Evan Ferguson both eager to prove themselves in attack, the Irish should score the goals they need to get the job done.
Draw
A draw will be enough for the Irish and with the sides quite evenly matched in Plovdiv, this result would not be a surprise.
Bulgaria Win
Bulgaria need to win, it’s as simple as that, if they want to gain promotion to League B. With nothing to lose, they could come out swinging. The Irish lost to both England and Greece 0-2 at home. This result would be enough for Bulgaria to gain promotion.
Ireland vs Bulgaria – Betting Tips
Double Chance (Ireland or Draw) @ ~1.40
Our primary bet is to back Ireland or a draw, providing a safety net in this must-win fixture, while still offering excellent value.
Both Teams to Score – Yes @ ~1.90
Given the defensive frailties on both sides, a bet on both teams to score presents attractive odds. The result from the first leg points in this direction too.
Under 2.5 Goals – Yes @ ~1.73
Four of Ireland’s six Nations League group games had under 2.5 goals. Five of Bulgaria’s six group games did. The first leg of this tie was over 2.5 goals, but neither side is particularly potent in attack. In their respective six group games, both sides only scored three goals apiece.
Furthermore, Bulgaria only conceded six goals in the group stage. Ireland conceded 12, but five of those were in a single match against England.
Ireland vs Bulgaria – Head-to-Head and Key Stats
Bulgaria have played Ireland on 13 occasions, with six of these games ending in draws. There have been four wins for Ireland and three for Bulgaria.
Six of the last seven games between the two sides have ended in a draw. Four of these were with a 1-1 score line.
Ireland have not lost to Bulgaria in a competitive fixture since April 1987, a 2-1 reverse.
Both Bulgaria and the Republic of Ireland only scored three goals in their six Nations League group games.
Bulgaria have never won when playing in the Republic of Ireland.
