Germany travel to Italy for the first leg of the Nations League quarter-finals on Thursday hoping to repeat their 5-2 success the last time the two sides played.
Italy vs Germany Preview
Germany topped Group A3 of the Nations League, securing 14 points from their six games (W4, D2). They go into this game off the back of a low key 1-1 draw against Hungary, only the second time they dropped points in the group.
Italy, meanwhile, finished second in Group A2, scoring 13 goals in their six Nations League matches. However, their defensive frailties remain a concern. They conceded eight and have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 games overall.
Under Luciano Spalletti’s guidance, the Azzurri are striving for a more proactive and fluid style of play though. They stormed their group but fell at the final hurdle, losing 3-1 at home to France. This saw them concede top spot to the French as they finished level on points but had a worse goal difference.
Germany, led by Julian Nagelsmann, are enjoying a rejuvenated campaign characterised by high pressing and a possession-based approach. Despite missing key players such as Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz, and Serge Gnabry through injury, Die Mannschaft have maintained an impressive unbeaten run. They have scored 18 and conceded just four in their six Nations League group games.
Germany recorded a commanding 5-2 home victory over Italy in their last encounter, with this correspnding fixture being a 1-1 draw. This was in the Nations League in 2022. Overall, in the last five meetings between these giants, Germany have won three and two matches have ended in draws.
Predictions for Italy vs Germany
Italy Win
Italy’s formidable home record – having scored in 11 of their last 12 matches at home – coupled with their desire to avenge their home defeat against France last time out makes them dangerous.
Draw
The two sides are exceptionally evenly matched, with little separating them in the betting. Germany are marginally stronger, but Italy have home advantage at the San Siro. A draw is certainly possible.
Germany Win
Italy conceded eight goals in the group stage. If Germany can exploit Italy’s defensive vulnerabilities, a win is not out of the question. Their potent attacking output and resilient away form suggest that Die Mannschaft are always capable of breaking down defences, even under pressure.
How Many Goals Can Be Expected?
Germany scored 18 goals and Italy 13 in their six Nations League group games. The last meeting between the two sides was a 5-2 success for Germany. With Italy’s defensive vulnerabilities too, all this suggests goals, goals, goals!
Will Both Teams Score?
Historically, head-to-head encounters between these two powerhouses have rarely seen a clean sheet. Seven of the last eight meetings have had both teams finding the net. Given Italy’s prolific home scoring record and Germany’s knack for capitalising on defensive lapses, it is likely that both teams will score in this clash.
Italy vs Germany – Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score
Considering Italy have scored in 11 of their last 12 home games and Germany’s recent away fixtures have consistently produced goals, betting on both teams to score is an excellent option.
Over 2.5 Goals
With both sides showcasing their attacking prowess and Italy’s defensive vulnerabilities, over 2.5 goals is an attractive proposition.
Correct Score: 2-2 Draw
For those looking for a more specific bet, a 2-2 draw offers good value, reflecting the balanced head-to-head record and the high likelihood of both teams finding the net.
Italy vs Germany – Head-to-Head and Key Stats
- Italy and Germany have played each other 37 times. The Italians have won 15 games, Germany have won 10, with 12 draws.
- In the last five head-to-head meetings between Italy and Germany, Germany have won three and two have ended in draws. There were goals in four of these five games.
- Italy have kept only one clean sheet in their last 10 matches, underscoring their ongoing defensive issues.
- Germany’s three recent Nations League away fixtures have all seen both teams score.
My Verdict
There is little to choose between the two sides in the betting, so backing the goal options may be wise. Italy and Germany are both high scorers and with the Italians’ defensive frailities, there are likely to be goals.
