The first major cup final of the 2024/25 season takes place at Wembley on Sunday as Liverpool face Newcastle United for the League Cup.
Defending champions Liverpool will be looking to bounce back after being knocked out of the Champions League by PSG in midweek. Meanwhile, Newcastle will be looking to go one better than they did in 2023 when they were defeated by Manchester United in the final.
The Magpies are looking to win their first major domestic trophy since 1955, but the experience of two years ago will at least help them handle the big occasion this weekend. Meanwhile, Liverpool have been here before plenty of times.
LIVERPOOL VS NEWCASTLE UNITED PREVIEW
Liverpool have won their last three in the Premier League – including a 2-0 victory over Newcastle on 26 February. However, they go into this game off the back of a penalty shootout defeat to PSG in the Champions League. This means the League Cup is the only trophy in play for Liverpool aside from the Premier League.
Newcastle’s form is erratic, having won three and lost three of their last six Premier League games. They come into this game following a 1-0 victory at West Ham on Monday.
Trent Alexander-Arnold is a doubt for Liverpool after a knock forced him off the pitch against PSG. Ibrahima Konate also left the field, but this was more due to fatigue. Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez are also likely absentees.
Newcastle will be without Anthony Gordon following his red card against Brighton. Lewis Hall will also be out with an ankle injury.
LIVERPOOL VS NEWCASTLE UNITED PREDICTIONS
Liverpool Win
Liverpool will be smarting after their defeat to PSG on penalties and will hope to take it out on Newcastle. The Reds have been imperious in the Premier League, winning their last three games and sitting 15 points clear at the top going into this weekend’s fixtures.
Injuries and suspensions will also mean Newcastle have to change tactics from those that allowed them to beat Arsenal so convincingly in the semi-finals.
Liverpool can also take heart from the fact they beat Newcastle United 2-0 at Anfield three weeks ago.
Draw
The last game between the two sides at St James’ Park, back in December, finished in a 3-3 draw. Fabian Schar scored a last-minute equaliser and Newcastle’s never-say-die attitude could serve them well here.
Liverpool’s last three League Cup final wins have all gone to extra time, while their successes in 2012 and 2022 were only resolved by penalties. Last season, they needed extra-time to beat Chelsea.
Newcastle United Win
Eddie Howe’s men are sat in sixth place in the Premier League going into this weekend’s fixtures. They are level pegging with fifth-placed Man City and beat Arsenal 4-0 on aggregate in the League Cup semi-finals. They clearly have the quality to damage a Liverpool side that might be vulnerable following their Champions League exit.
LIVERPOOL VS NEWCASTLE UNITED – BETTING TIPS
Liverpool Win After ET
Arne Slot’s men should have too much for Newcastle here. Last season’s victory was Jurgen Klopp’s final trophy at Liverpool and they did it under much tougher circumstances, with key players injured. Conversely, it is Newcastle who are suffering with injuries and suspensions this time around.
However, Liverpool have been taken to extra time in their last three League Cup finals and Newcastle are a strong outfit. I expect Liverpool to win, but it wouldn’t surprise if it took longer than 90 minutes.
Over 2.5 Goals
With injuries to both teams affecting their defences in particular – and with two of the Premier League’s top three scorers on the pitch (Mohamed Salah for Liverpool, Alexander Isak for Newcastle) – goals are likely.
Liverpool also have this season’s top scorer in the League Cup in their ranks, Cody Gakpo with five. He returned from injury against PSG and will be gunning for a start here.
Three of the last four meetings between the two sides have had over 2.5 goals and I expect this to continue here.
Alexander Isak to Score Anytime
This is where the value is in the goal scoring markets. Isak has scored 19 Premier League goals this season with a 28% conversion rate. He has netted 22 goals overall. He missed his side’s 2-0 defeat at Anfield last month and Newcastle certainly missed his contribution.
LIVERPOOL VS NEWCASTLE UNITED – HEAD-TO-HEAD AND KEY STATS
There have been 189 games between the two sides, with Liverpool winning 94 and Newcastle winning 50. There have been 45 draws.
Newcastle have not won against Liverpool in their last 17 attempts. You have to go back to December 2015 to find their last victory against the Reds.
Liverpool have won the League Cup a record 10 times, their last victory coming against Chelsea in the 2024 final.
Newcastle United have never won the League Cup. The closest they have come recently was in 2023, when they were defeated by Manchester United in the final. They also lost the 1976 final to Manchester City.
