Mikel Merino scored an equaliser deep into stoppage time to change the complexion of this Nations League quarter-final between Spain and the Netherlands on Thursday evening.
It looked like the Dutch would be taking a valuable 2-1 lead into Sunday’s second leg in Valencia with them, but Spain extended their unbeaten run to 17 games with the last-minute strike.
Spain had taken the lead in the ninth minute through Nico Williams’ neat finish. He had capitalised on Dutch full-back Jorrel Hato losing possession in his own half.
Not to be deterred, the Netherlands turned the tie around. Liverpool forward Cody Gakpo equalised in the 28th minute with a powerful shot that beat the Spanish keeper.
The Dutch made the perfect start to the second half, with Tijjani Reijnders’ low shot giving them the lead just 39 seconds in.
However, Spain were not to be denied, with Merino capitalising on Bart Verbruggen parrying Williams’ low shot into his path to make the score 2-2.
Hato was sent off nine minutes from time, receiving a straight red card for a challenge on Mikel Oyarzabal. He will therefore miss the return fixture.
SPAIN VS NETHERLANDS PREVIEW
Spain’s six-game winning run was broken by this 2-2 draw, but they will feel relieved that they are not entering the second leg in arrears. They struggled to get going for large chunks of the second half, but Merino took advantage of Verbruggen’s weak save.
Scotland were the last team to defeat Spain in competitive action back in March 2023, while the Spanish also lost to Colombia in a friendly a year ago. They are on a 17-match unbeaten run in all competitions though.
The Netherlands have lost just once in seven games in all competitions, with the performance against Spain certainly confidence boosting. The Dutch made the semi-finals of Euro 2024 before being dumped out by England and will still fancy revenge for their defeat in the 2010 World Cup final to Spain.
Spain centre-back Pau Cubarsi was forced off the pitch towards the end of the first leg and it’s unlikely he will feature. Dean Huijsen could make his full debut as his replacement.
Hato will be suspended following his sending off so Ian Maatsen will likely replace him for the Netherlands. There will likely be some shifting of players in the Dutch defence to accommodate for Hato’s absence.
Jurrien Timber is out through illness while Xavi Simons will likely start down the right.
It promises to be a combative affair, with the winners facing the victors of the France vs Croatia game in the semi-finals.
SPAIN VS NETHERLANDS PREDICTIONS
Spain Win
Unbeaten in 17 games in all competitions and with home advantage too, Spain are understandable favourites to win this match. The Netherlands have yet to win away from home in the Nations League this time around. Meanwhile, Spain won three of three on home soil in the group stage.
Draw
The last two games between Spain and the Netherlands have ended in draws. In addition to the 2-2 draw on Thursday night, the two sides drew 1-1 in a friendly in November 2020.
Two of the Netherlands’ three away games in this season’s Nations League, against Hungary and Bosnia, ended in 1-1 draws too.
Netherlands Win
The last time the two sides played on Spanish soil, on 15 November 2000, the Dutch secured a 2-1 win. Both sides have clear attacking threat, so a Dutch win is certainly not out of the question.
SPAIN VS NETHERLANDS – BETTING TIPS
Spain Win
Despite the threat carried by the Dutch attack, the momentum is certainly in Spain’s favour. Scoring a last-minute equaliser in Rotterdam sets them up nicely for this fixture and the home crowd should roar them on. They are unbeaten in 17 games in all competitions and I expect them to extend this to 18 on Sunday night.
Both Teams To Score
Both teams scored in the first leg and I think this is likely to repeat itself here.
Both teams scored in five of the Netherlands’ seven Nations League fixtures so far. The same is true in four of Spain’s seven fixtures.
Cody Gakpo and Tijjani Reijnders both scored their third goals in the Nations League this time around and will be determined to add to their tally. Meanwhile, Spain can score goals from all over the pitch.
Both sides have scored 15 goals in seven Nations League games, an average of more than two a game.
SPAIN VS NETHERLANDS – HEAD-TO-HEAD AND KEY STATS
There have been 13 encounters between the Netherlands and Spain. The Dutch have won six and have lost four. There have been three draws.
In the last six head-to-head meetings between the Netherlands and Spain, the Netherlands have recorded three wins, while Spain have secured one win. Two matches have ended in a draw.
Spain are now unbeaten in 17 games in all competitions. Their last defeat was in a friendly against Colombia a year ago.
The Netherlands have lost just one of seven games in all competitions.
