Third-placed England host Italy in the fourth round of the Six Nations at the Allianz Stadium, Twickenham, on Sunday still in with a chance of winning the competition.
Ireland are in the driving seat though, so the Red and Whites will need to secure a comprehensive bonus point victory against the team currently in fifth place in the table.
The Azzurri, meanwhile, will be looking for points to avoid the wooden spoon by staying above bottom side Wales, who travel to Scotland for Saturday evening’s fixture.
ENGLAND vs ITALY PREVIEW
England still have an outside chance of securing the Six Nations crown, despite being four points behind Ireland going into this round of fixtures. France, who are one point better off than England, could also take the trophy.
Marcus Smith has been dropped to the bench, with Elliot Daly starting at full-back. Henry Slade has also been left out, with Fraser Dingwall returning to the side for the first time in over a year at centre.
The inclusion of Dingwall means five out of seven of England’s backs play for Northampton, with Alex Mitchell and Fin Smith extending their partnership at half-back. This synergy could prove vital against the powerful Italian forwards.
Jamie George will reach 100 England caps in the hooker position – only the seventh England player in history to do so – and will start for the first time in a Test since being stripped of the captaincy before the tournament began.
England have won their last two Six Nations games by a single point, while losing to Ireland 27-22 in their opening game. They will be looking to make it three wins in a row on Sunday.
Italy’s form has been mixed. They were defeated 31-19 against Scotland in their opening fixture, but enjoyed a 22-15 win against Wales the following week. The wind was taken out of their sails in round three when they were hammered 73-24 by France at home. They will want to bounce back here.
ENGLAND vs ITALY PREDICTIONS
England Win
England have claimed victory in all 25 of their Six Nations matches against Italy since the Azzurri joined the competition in 2000. England are the only team to enjoy a 100% record over any other team in the Six Nations.
Draw
With Italy getting closer to beating England and with the Red and Whites claiming victory by just one point over Scotland (16-15) and France (26-25), the draw is not as unlikely an outcome as it may initially appear.
Italy Win
Despite England’s dominance in this fixture, Italy came the closest to beating them last time out with a 27-24 defeat in the 2024 Six Nations. Italy defeated Wales in the second round of the competition and will be desperate to avoid the wooden spoon.
ENGLAND VS ITALY – BETTING TIPS
England Win
Italy were hammered by France in their last game, succumbing to a 24-73 defeat on home soil. England narrowly beat France earlier in the competition and with home advantage over Italy here, they could put the Azzurri to the sword.
Italy’s average margin of defeat over their last 10 matches against England was 30 points, while five of their last 11 Six Nations encounters have had more than 54.5 points. However, England are not as free-flowing as old, so expect a lower score here.
England to Score First and Lead at HT
England will likely need a bonus point win against Italy to have any chance of catching Ireland at the top of the Six Nations table. Therefore, expect them to come out strongly and score first. Also expect them to lead at half-time. England have scored four or more tries in 10 of their last 12 home games against Italy in the Six Nations. Expect that trend to continue here.
Under 54.5 Points
England’s last game against Italy featured 51 points as they narrowly beat the Azzurri 27-24. Only one of the last six matches between the two sides in all competitions has resulted in a score over 54.5 points.
All of England’s Six Nations games so far have also fallen under this score as England lost to Ireland 27-22, beat France 26-25 and were victorious over Scotland 16-15. Two of Italy’s three games also had fewer than 54.5 points. This seems the pick here as the Italians have improved of late.
ENGLAND VS ITALY – HEAD-TO-HEAD AND KEY STATS
England have not lost to Italy in 25 Six Nations encounters, ever since the Azzurri joined the competition in 2000.
England and Italy have faced each other 31 times in total. England have never been defeated.
England have failed to score four or more tries in just two of their last 12 home Six Nations games against Italy. They still won both matches (18-11 in 2013 and 20-7 in 2007).
The closest Italy have come to beating England in the Six Nations was last time out – a 27-24 defeat in the 2024 competition.
England are unbeaten at home in the Six Nations in four games, but the last three wins were by just a single point.
Italy (53) and England (45) have made more dominant tackles than any other team in the Six Nations, with Sebastian Negri’s 50 being more than any other player in the tournament so far.
