ATP Montreal predictions fact box
Tournament: National Bank Open presented by Rogers
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Round: Round of 64
Date: 5 August 2026
Location: IGA Stadium, Montreal, Canada
Surface: Outdoor hard court
Featured matches: Tsitsipas vs Fonseca, Brooksby vs Shelton, Zverev vs Griekspoor, Medvedev vs Van de Zandschulp and Tien vs Monfils
Main recommended market: Match winner
Overall confidence: Medium
The ATP Montreal match predictions for 5 August focus on a strong second-round schedule featuring the tournament’s leading seeds, the defending champion and several dangerous unseeded opponents.
Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, Daniil Medvedev and Felix Auger-Aliassime all begin their campaigns after receiving opening-round byes. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Gael Monfils and Tallon Griekspoor have already played at least one match in Montreal, which could help them settle more quickly into the conditions.
The selections below prioritise likely winners, but not every favourite offers the same betting value. Prices can change before the matches begin, so the odds should always be checked again close to the first serve. The official order of play confirms that all five featured matches are scheduled for Wednesday in Montreal.
ATP Montreal match predictions summary
| Match | Prediction | Market | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca | Joao Fonseca to win | Match winner | Medium |
| Jenson Brooksby vs Ben Shelton | Ben Shelton to win | Match winner | Medium-High |
| Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor | Griekspoor +1.5 sets | Set handicap | Medium |
| Daniil Medvedev vs Botic van de Zandschulp | Daniil Medvedev to win | Match winner | Medium-High |
| Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils | Learner Tien to win | Match winner | Medium |
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca prediction
Recommended market: Match winner
Selection: Joao Fonseca to win
Odds checked: Approximately 1.73
Confidence: Medium
Stefanos Tsitsipas has already won three matches in Montreal after progressing through qualifying and defeating Martin Damm 6-4, 6-4 in the opening round. That preparation is important because it gives him direct knowledge of the court speed and current playing conditions.
Tsitsipas has also shown signs of recovery after a difficult decline in the rankings. He entered this match around No. 53, while Fonseca was ranked approximately No. 27 and seeded 22nd in Montreal.
The tactical problem for Tsitsipas will be controlling his backhand corner. Fonseca can generate heavy pace from both wings and should look to attack the Greek player’s one-handed backhand with deep cross-court shots before changing direction.
Tsitsipas needs to serve accurately and use his forehand from inside the court. If he is pushed several metres behind the baseline, Fonseca should gain control of too many rallies.
Fonseca was priced as the narrow favourite at approximately 1.73 when the market was checked. That price reflects the Brazilian’s higher current ranking and greater baseline power without treating Tsitsipas as an easy opponent.
Tsitsipas vs Fonseca verdict
The selection is Joao Fonseca to win with Medium confidence.
Tsitsipas has the advantage in court preparation, but Fonseca possesses the more reliable combination of power, movement and two-sided baseline aggression. The match could require three sets, so the moneyline appears safer than backing Fonseca to win in straight sets.
Jenson Brooksby vs Ben Shelton prediction
Recommended market: Match winner
Selection: Ben Shelton to win
Best odds checked: Approximately 1.32
Confidence: Medium-High
Ben Shelton returns to Montreal as the defending champion and No. 5 seed. He entered the match with a 27-12 record for the season, including a hard-court title in Dallas.
Jenson Brooksby has struggled for consistency, carrying an 11-18 record into this matchup. He did, however, produce a controlled 6-3, 6-4 opening-round victory over Adam Walton. This will be the first recorded meeting between the two Americans.
Shelton should receive a major advantage from his serve. The left-hander can create short returns with pace down the centre and a swinging delivery from the advantage court. That should help him take control with his first forehand.
Brooksby’s route to an upset depends on extending rallies, changing rhythm and forcing Shelton to hit additional shots. He is an intelligent returner and can make matches tactically uncomfortable, but he lacks Shelton’s ability to earn quick points.
The main concern for Shelton is his recent workload. He reached the Washington quarter-finals before losing, and his aggressive style can become error-prone when his first-serve percentage falls. Even so, the matchup strongly favours the defending champion on a hard court.
Shelton was available at approximately 1.32 when checked, with Brooksby above 4.00.
Brooksby vs Shelton verdict
The prediction is Ben Shelton to win with Medium-High confidence.
Brooksby can create awkward rallies, but Shelton has the stronger serve, greater first-strike power and better recent hard-court record. The price is short, so this is a likely-winner selection rather than an outstanding value bet.
Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor prediction
Recommended market: Set handicap
Selection: Tallon Griekspoor +1.5 sets
Confidence: Medium
Alexander Zverev is the top seed, World No. 3 and the clear match favourite. He also leads the head-to-head against Tallon Griekspoor 8-2.
The overall record does not fully explain how competitive this matchup has been. Six of their ten previous meetings required either a deciding set or at least one tie-break. Griekspoor also won their most recent outdoor hard-court encounter at Indian Wells in 2025, taking the final two sets in tie-breaks.
Zverev enters Montreal after winning his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros and recording eight victories across his previous ten matches. He has not competed for more than three weeks, however, which creates some uncertainty around his immediate timing.
Griekspoor has dropped significantly in the rankings and was listed around No. 69. His recent form has been inconsistent, but he defeated Lorenzo Sonego 7-6, 7-5 in the opening round and should be comfortable with the courts.
The Dutchman’s serve is the key to this prediction. If he protects his first delivery and prevents Zverev from controlling return games, another close set is realistic. Griekspoor does not need to win the match for the handicap selection to succeed; taking one set would be enough.
Zverev vs Griekspoor verdict
The selection is Tallon Griekspoor +1.5 sets with Medium confidence.
Zverev remains the likely match winner, but his short moneyline offers limited appeal against an opponent who has repeatedly pushed him into close sets. Griekspoor’s recent ranking decline is a concern, yet his serve and previous success in this matchup support the set handicap.
Daniil Medvedev vs Botic van de Zandschulp prediction
Recommended market: Match winner
Selection: Daniil Medvedev to win
Confidence: Medium-High
Daniil Medvedev has won all four of his previous meetings with Botic van de Zandschulp. Their most recent match ended in a dominant 6-2, 6-2 Medvedev victory in Rotterdam.
Medvedev entered Montreal around World No. 6, while Van de Zandschulp was close to No. 70. The Dutch player had won only three of his previous ten matches before this round and committed eight double faults in his opening victory.
The main uncertainty is Medvedev’s lack of recent competitive tennis. He is returning to hard courts after a break of more than one month and an early Wimbledon exit.
His playing style should nevertheless cause serious problems for Van de Zandschulp. Medvedev’s deep return position can neutralise first serves, while his flat groundstrokes make it difficult for opponents to attack without taking significant risks.
Van de Zandschulp needs to serve aggressively and move forward whenever he creates a short ball. Remaining in extended baseline exchanges is unlikely to be successful because Medvedev is more consistent and covers the court more efficiently.
The market gave Medvedev an implied probability of approximately 78% when checked. That corresponds to an indicative decimal price of around 1.28 before considering differences between betting and prediction-market pricing.
Medvedev vs Van de Zandschulp verdict
The prediction is Daniil Medvedev to win with Medium-High confidence.
Medvedev may require several games to find his return timing, but his 4-0 head-to-head record and superior defensive stability give him more reliable routes to victory.
Learner Tien vs Gael Monfils prediction
Recommended market: Match winner
Selection: Learner Tien to win
Confidence: Medium
Learner Tien and Gael Monfils meet for the first time in one of the most interesting generational matchups of the Montreal schedule.
Tien is 20 years old and entered the tournament around World No. 19. Monfils, aged 39, was ranked outside the top 300 and required a wildcard to enter the main draw.
The rankings suggest a comfortable Tien victory, but the circumstances make the match more complicated. Monfils defeated Kamil Majchrzak 6-4, 6-4 in the opening round, becoming one of the oldest players to win a Masters 1000 match.
This is also expected to be Monfils’ final appearance in Montreal, so the French-speaking crowd should provide strong support. That atmosphere could help him maintain intensity during close service games.
Tien must avoid becoming distracted by Monfils’ changes of pace and unpredictable shot selection. The American should focus on returning consistently, moving Monfils laterally and making the match physically demanding.
Monfils can still produce powerful serves and spectacular defensive points, but repeating that level over an entire best-of-three-set match is more difficult. Tien’s movement, backhand stability and physical freshness make him the more dependable selection.
Tien vs Monfils verdict
The prediction is Learner Tien to win with Medium confidence.
Monfils’ opening victory and crowd support make this more dangerous than the rankings indicate. Tien should still prevail if he remains patient and prevents the match from being decided by short, emotional bursts of attacking tennis.
Best ATP Montreal bet
The strongest standalone selection is Ben Shelton to beat Jenson Brooksby.
Shelton is the defending champion, has enjoyed a stronger season and owns the more decisive serve. Brooksby can make the match uncomfortable, but he will need to return exceptionally well to keep Shelton from controlling most service games.
The approximately 1.32 price is not particularly generous, however. Bettors looking for greater potential value may prefer Tallon Griekspoor +1.5 sets against Alexander Zverev, although that selection carries more risk.
ATP Montreal predictions final verdict
The ATP Montreal match predictions for 5 August are:
- Joao Fonseca to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Ben Shelton to beat Jenson Brooksby
- Tallon Griekspoor +1.5 sets against Alexander Zverev
- Daniil Medvedev to beat Botic van de Zandschulp
- Learner Tien to beat Gael Monfils
Shelton and Medvedev are the most reliable match-winner selections. Fonseca offers a more competitive price, while Griekspoor’s set handicap is the higher-risk value option.
Odds can move before the matches begin, and no selection is guaranteed. Check the latest markets, consider the price rather than only the predicted winner and bet responsibly.
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